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Canadian Home Prices Could Drop as Much as 5% Due to Coronavirus

Trusted Regina Real Estate Lawyer Robert MacKay shares some insight on the potential future of the Canadian Housing market.

Canadian home prices could fall a “relatively modest” five per cent by July as some owners are forced to sell in the face of the economic hardship brought on by COVID-19, Capital Economics said Monday.

While sales activity and price gains were firm in the first half of March, real estate boards from across the country are reporting a near halt in activity as government shutdowns and physical distancing have people staying home.

As April unfolded, it became innately clear that COVID-19 had already impacted the local housing market, with Toronto home prices declining for the first time in nearly two years.

But the pandemic isn’t just going to have an impact on a local level but on a national level as well, with some experts already predicting that Canadian home prices could fall in the months to come.

Capital Economics said Canada’s house price inflation accelerated to a nearly two-year high in March, but given the disruption already caused by the coronavirus outbreak, prices are set to decrease in the coming months.

Capital Economics senior Canada economist Stephen Brown said April will see “an even steeper fall” in sales activity to a “small fraction of their normal levels.”

“New listings also fell sharply in March, which meant the sales-to-new listing ratio continued to point to strong house price inflation ahead,” said Brown, however, he said 

“given the huge rise in unemployment and the cashflow problems that restrictions on tourism have caused investors in the short-term rental market, it seems likely that there will be some forced sellers in the coming months. Those sellers will inevitably have to accept lower bids from the few people willing to buy in the current environment.”  said Brown.

Last week, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported a 14 per cent drop in sales volume from February to March. New listings were down 12.5 per cent from February, while average prices were flat month-over-month and up 12.5 per cent year-over-year.

That dynamic has Capital Economics “penciling in a relatively modest fall in house prices of five per cent in the coming few months.”

Source: Greg Bonnell - BNN Bloomberg - April 20 2020 - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/home-prices-could-fall-5-amid-pandemic-capital-economics-1.1424090 
Source: Ainsley Smith - Toronto Storeys - April 20 2020 - https://torontostoreys.com/canada-home-prices-coronavirus-decline/

For more questions and help with any legal property issues consult with our Trusted Regina Real Estate Lawyer Robert MacKay